Confidential prison data reveals the government’s strategy to resolve the Imprisonment for Public Protection (IPP) crisis is projected to fail.

• Ministry of Justice figures indicate at least 520 IPP prisoners will still be incarcerated in March 2030, never having been released.

• The projections challenge claims that the government’s IPP “action plan” will enable meaningful progress toward safe release.

• Former lord chief justice John Thomas described the plan as a “failure” that prolongs injustice nearly two decades after the sentence was abolished.

• IPP sentences, abolished in 2012 but not applied retrospectively, have been linked to almost 100 prison suicides and criticised as unjust and excessive.

• The sentence’s architect, David Blunkett, has called introducing IPP under Tony Blair his greatest regret.

• Some prisoners, including Leroy Douglas (jailed in 2005 for phone robbery), remain detained decades later; his case is under review by the United Nations over potential human rights breaches.

• Projections exclude prisoners recalled for licence breaches and those transferred to secure hospitals due to deteriorating mental health.

• As of December 2025, nearly 2,400 people remained on IPP sentences, including 924 who have never been released; many have served at least 10 years beyond their minimum term.

• A 2022 cross-party justice committee labelled IPP sentences “irredeemably flawed” and urged resentencing, but governments have declined.

• Lord Thomas has called on prisons minister James Timpson to guarantee release dates within two years of the next parole review, supporting proposals from the Howard League for Penal Reform.

• Campaign group United Group for Reform of IPP (Ungripp) says government projections substitute statistics for justice and demands full resentencing.

• Families launched a protest exhibition in the constituency of justice secretary David Lammy, painting red stones to represent those still imprisoned and white stones for those who died.

• Families also met Lord Timpson to raise concerns about prisoners whose mental health declined severely while serving IPP terms.

• Activists argue many long-term prisoners have lost outside support networks after decades in custody.

• Data released in December shows ministers have blocked some Parole Board recommendations for transfers to open prisons; between January and March 2025, then justice secretary Shabana Mahmood rejected around a third of such recommendations.

• The Ministry of Justice says IPP was rightly abolished and highlights reforms including added support and faster licence termination reviews.

• Officials state the never-released IPP population has fallen by 30% since April 2023 and maintain that most remaining prisoners have been deemed too dangerous for release by the independent Parole Board.