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Economics
Focusing on how cash affects the world.


The UK recorded a £30.4bn budget surplus in January 2026.
It is the highest monthly surplus since records began in 1993 (not inflation-adjusted). January 2025 surplus was £15.4bn. Economists had forecast a £23.8bn surplus. Total tax receipts in January were £133.3bn (13.8% higher year-on-year). Capital gains tax revenue reached nearly £17bn (up 69% year-on-year). Employers’ National Insurance contributions rose by £2.9bn. Income tax receipts increased by £3.6bn. Income tax threshold freezes contributed to higher income tax receipts.
Feb 221 min read


President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 15% global tariffs on most goods imported into the United States.
The announcement was made on 21 February 2026 via Truth Social. This replaces an earlier proposal of a 10% tariff. The 10% tariffs had been scheduled to take effect on 24 February 2026. It is unclear whether the 15% rate will begin on the same date. ⚖ Supreme Court Ruling On 20 February 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled 6–3 that: Trump exceeded his authority when imposing sweeping global tariffs last year. He improperly used the International Emergency Econo
Feb 223 min read


UK: Conservatives Propose Lower Interest on Plan 2 Student Loans
📌 Main Proposal Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch pledged to reduce interest rates on certain student loans. Proposal applies to Plan 2 loans issued between 2012 and 2023. Badenoch described Plan 2 loans as increasingly feeling like a “scam”. Around 5.8 million people took out Plan 2 loans during that period. 💰 Current Plan 2 Loan Terms Introduced in 2012 under the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government. Tuition fees increased to up to £9,000 per year
Feb 222 min read
Us Growth Slowed
Us GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.4 in Q4 2025 Growth in Q3 2025 was 4.4%. Full-year economic growth in 2025 was 2.2%. Consumer spending rose 2.4% in Q4 (down from 3.5% in Q3). Government spending fell by more than 16% in Q4. The federal government shutdown reduced GDP by an estimated 1 percentage point. President Donald Trump claimed the shutdown cost “at least two points” of GDP. Early 2025 saw a mild contraction due partly to a surge in imports ahead of tariffs. Impor
Feb 201 min read
Us Growth Slowed
Us GDP grew at an annualised rate of 1.4 in Q4 2025 Growth in Q3 2025 was 4.4%. Full-year economic growth in 2025 was 2.2%. Consumer spending rose 2.4% in Q4 (down from 3.5% in Q3). Government spending fell by more than 16% in Q4. The federal government shutdown reduced GDP by an estimated 1 percentage point. President Donald Trump claimed the shutdown cost “at least two points” of GDP. Early 2025 saw a mild contraction due partly to a surge in imports ahead of tariffs. Impor
Feb 201 min read


The UK recorded a £30.4bn budget surplus in January 2026.
It is the highest monthly surplus since records began in 1993 (not inflation-adjusted). January 2025 surplus was £15.4bn. Economists had forecast a £23.8bn surplus. Total tax receipts in January were £133.3bn (13.8% higher year-on-year). Capital gains tax revenue reached nearly £17bn (up 69% year-on-year). Employers’ National Insurance contributions rose by £2.9bn. Income tax receipts increased by £3.6bn. Income tax threshold freezes contributed to higher income tax receipts.
Feb 201 min read


HM Revenue and Customs is considering softening proposals to levy charges on cash held in stocks and shares ISAs.
Talks have taken place between HMRC and financial services firms regarding draft ISA legislation. Discussions indicate potential changes to proposed interest charges and the definition of “cash-like” assets. Industry representatives report increased optimism following negotiations with HMRC. Final decisions are pending further technical consultation and legislative revisions. The Chancellor’s Budget introduced a £12,000 annual cap on cash ISA contributions for savers under 65
Feb 192 min read


HM Revenue and Customs is considering softening proposals to levy charges on cash held in stocks and shares ISAs.
Talks have taken place between HMRC and financial services firms regarding draft ISA legislation. Discussions indicate potential changes to proposed interest charges and the definition of “cash-like” assets. Industry representatives report increased optimism following negotiations with HMRC. Final decisions are pending further technical consultation and legislative revisions. The Chancellor’s Budget introduced a £12,000 annual cap on cash ISA contributions for savers under 65
Feb 192 min read


HM Revenue and Customs is considering softening proposals to levy charges on cash held in stocks and shares ISAs.
Talks have taken place between HMRC and financial services firms regarding draft ISA legislation. Discussions indicate potential changes to proposed interest charges and the definition of “cash-like” assets. Industry representatives report increased optimism following negotiations with HMRC. Final decisions are pending further technical consultation and legislative revisions. The Chancellor’s Budget introduced a £12,000 annual cap on cash ISA contributions for savers under 65
Feb 192 min read


Ftse 100 Prices Jump
The FTSE 100 rose 1.1% to 10,670 during morning trading on 18 February 2026. The index surpassed 10,650 for the first time in its history. UK consumer price inflation measured 3.0% annually in January 2026. December 2025 inflation was 3.4%. The Office for National Statistics attributed lower inflation to reduced bread and petrol prices. The Bank of England is expected by many economists to cut interest rates in March 2026. Economists anticipate rates could fall to 3.5% in Ma
Feb 191 min read


Ftse 100 Prices Jump
The FTSE 100 rose 1.1% to 10,670 during morning trading on 18 February 2026. The index surpassed 10,650 for the first time in its history. UK consumer price inflation measured 3.0% annually in January 2026. December 2025 inflation was 3.4%. The Office for National Statistics attributed lower inflation to reduced bread and petrol prices. The Bank of England is expected by many economists to cut interest rates in March 2026. Economists anticipate rates could fall to 3.5% in Ma
Feb 191 min read


Benefits Set To Increase
Enfield recorded the highest benefits spending per working-age person in 2024/25 (£3,868). Enfield was the smallest borough where total benefits spending exceeded £1 billion. Other high-ranking areas by per-head spending: Blackpool (£3,678) Hackney (£3,669) Blaenau Gwent (£3,462) Haringey (£3,419) Birmingham had the highest total benefits bill but ranked 14th per head. The analysis was conducted by Neil O'Brien. The study examined: Universal Credit Disability Living Allowance
Feb 191 min read


Benefits Set To Increase
Enfield recorded the highest benefits spending per working-age person in 2024/25 (£3,868). Enfield was the smallest borough where total benefits spending exceeded £1 billion. Other high-ranking areas by per-head spending: Blackpool (£3,678) Hackney (£3,669) Blaenau Gwent (£3,462) Haringey (£3,419) Birmingham had the highest total benefits bill but ranked 14th per head. The analysis was conducted by Neil O'Brien. The study examined: Universal Credit Disability Living Allowance
Feb 191 min read


Benefits Set To Increase
Enfield recorded the highest benefits spending per working-age person in 2024/25 (£3,868). Enfield was the smallest borough where total benefits spending exceeded £1 billion. Other high-ranking areas by per-head spending: Blackpool (£3,678) Hackney (£3,669) Blaenau Gwent (£3,462) Haringey (£3,419) Birmingham had the highest total benefits bill but ranked 14th per head. The analysis was conducted by Neil O'Brien. The study examined: Universal Credit Disability Living Allowance
Feb 191 min read


Gas Prices To Reduce In The UK
Ofgem is expected to lower the energy price cap in April. Cornwall Insight forecasts a 7% reduction in the price cap from 1 April. The projected reduction is £117 per year for a typical dual fuel household. Annual bills are forecast to fall to £1,641 from April 1. An earlier forecast predicted an 8% (£138) reduction. Ofgem will confirm the official cap level by February 25 for the April–June quarter. The reduction is linked to the Government’s decision to abolish the Energy C
Feb 191 min read


Gas Prices To Reduce In The UK
Ofgem is expected to lower the energy price cap in April. Cornwall Insight forecasts a 7% reduction in the price cap from 1 April. The projected reduction is £117 per year for a typical dual fuel household. Annual bills are forecast to fall to £1,641 from April 1. An earlier forecast predicted an 8% (£138) reduction. Ofgem will confirm the official cap level by February 25 for the April–June quarter. The reduction is linked to the Government’s decision to abolish the Energy C
Feb 191 min read
Unemployment Still Down
UK unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December, up from 5.1% in November — the highest level in the post-Covid period. Number of UK payrolled employees fell by 121,000 (0.4%) over the past year. Provisional January data shows a further 11,000 fall in payrolled employees. Payroll employment is 134,000 lower than a year earlier. Regular pay growth slowed to 4.2% in the three months to December. Real pay growth (after CPI inflation) was 0.8% . Private se
Feb 171 min read
Unemployment Still Down
UK unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December, up from 5.1% in November — the highest level in the post-Covid period. Number of UK payrolled employees fell by 121,000 (0.4%) over the past year. Provisional January data shows a further 11,000 fall in payrolled employees. Payroll employment is 134,000 lower than a year earlier. Regular pay growth slowed to 4.2% in the three months to December. Real pay growth (after CPI inflation) was 0.8% . Private se
Feb 171 min read
Unemployment Still Down
UK unemployment rate rose to 5.2% in the three months to December, up from 5.1% in November — the highest level in the post-Covid period. Number of UK payrolled employees fell by 121,000 (0.4%) over the past year. Provisional January data shows a further 11,000 fall in payrolled employees. Payroll employment is 134,000 lower than a year earlier. Regular pay growth slowed to 4.2% in the three months to December. Real pay growth (after CPI inflation) was 0.8% . Private se
Feb 171 min read


London markets delivered a mixed session on Monday, despite uplift from Keirs speech
London markets were mixed on Monday ask Keirs anouncements bolstered it but US markets were closed for a bank holiday. Canadian markets were closed for Family Day. FTSE 100: Rose 27.34 points. Up 0.3%. Closed at 10,473.69. FTSE 250: Fell 51.80 points. Down 0.2%. Closed at 23,375.47. AIM All-Share: Fell 0.44 points. Down 0.1%. Closed at 811.41. CAC 40 rose 0.2%. DAX 40 fell 0.5%. NatWest: Top FTSE 100 performer. Up 4.8%. Launched £750m share buyback. Programme to complete by J
Feb 161 min read
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